National Day Holiday Meets High Freight Rates: What Companies Really Need to Handle in Q4 Is “The Goods Have Not Arrived, but the Orders Are Already Lined Up”

As October 2026 begins, several developments in the international business environment are directly affecting shipment timing.

The National Day holiday in Mainland China is underway, and factories and some port operations have slowed. Transpacific freight rates surged in September and levelled off in early October, but remain at a high for the year. At the same time, the US–China trade truce has been extended by about two months, with tariffs reduced on some goods and further talks expected before year-end. For companies that need to deliver in the fourth quarter, this is not a situation where “everything returns to normal once the holiday ends”. It is a window in which inventory and outbound timing need to be planned in advance.

What Does the Current International Situation Mean for Shipments?

1. The holiday has broken the factory and outbound rhythm

During the National Day holiday, many Mainland factories pause or reduce production, and port operations also slow. Space on the last sailings before the holiday has often already been locked in; sailings in the first week after the holiday were in many cases booked before the break began. If orders need to reach stores, go live on a platform, or be handed to overseas customers before year-end, arranging space only now will be very tight. Goods that have already left the factory but have not yet reached the final destination need a place in between where they can be received, checked and held. Otherwise, everything arrives together after the holiday, and sorting and outbound work pile up at the same time.

2. Freight rates have not come down, so Q4 costs should be budgeted at the high level

Market data show that spot rates from the Far East to the US West Coast in early October were around USD 7,800 to 8,300 per 40-foot container, with East Coast rates higher and some quotes still above USD 10,000. Analysts say this round of increases has peaked, but with Middle East route constraints, fuel costs and Asian port congestion, a clear fall is unlikely before year-end. Asia–Europe rates have softened, but remain above levels at the start of the year.

This means Q4 transport costs should not be estimated using first-half quotations. If an urgent order has to be switched to air at short notice, the cost gap will be even clearer, so it is more important to separate in advance which batches must move quickly and which can wait.

3. The tariff truce is a buffer, not a final decision

The late-September meeting between the US and Chinese leaders extended the trade truce by about two months and reduced tariffs on some goods, with further talks expected before year-end. For companies, this provides a short and more predictable window, but it does not remove the possibility of policy change. Many importers are therefore choosing to place goods in a reliable location during the window, check quantities and documents, and then release them in batches against sales orders, rather than moving the whole lot to the final market at once.

In This Situation, What Companies Need Is Not More Quotations, but a Node That Can Absorb the Buffer

When factories are closed, freight rates are high, and policy is only temporarily stable, the common approach is to:

• Place goods that left the factory before the holiday into a warehouse where they can be sorted at any time
• Move urgent orders by air and large volumes by sea, and bring both into the same inventory
• Release goods after arrival against customer orders, rather than clearing a full container at once
• Reserve space for repacking, relabelling or splitting, to meet the requirements of different markets or platforms
• Keep safety stock close to international routes, so the time from “an order exists” to “goods can be shipped” is shorter

As a free port, Hong Kong can hold goods, re-export them, and work with both air and sea freight, which makes it well suited to this buffer role. In the 2026 Policy Address and the Five-Year Plan, the HKSAR Government again positioned Hong Kong as a high value-added supply chain services centre, and is preparing preferential tax rates for qualifying logistics and supply chain management activities. The policy direction is favourable to the industry. For companies, however, that benefit still depends on a local partner that can adjust flexibly to actual cargo volume.

TDS Logistics: Helping Companies Handle Q4 Cargo by Order Rhythm, Not by Vessel Schedule

TDS Logistics has the setup for warehousing, inbound checking, sorting and freight arrangements, and can support Q4 needs with:

• Receiving, checking and temporary storage of cargo arriving before and after the holiday
• Urgent air shipments and large-volume sea freight brought into the same inventory management
• Batch release against orders, repacking, splitting or relabelling
• Local delivery or re-export arrangements
• Flexible warehouse space for general merchandise, e-commerce goods, electronics, daily necessities and other items that need more detailed handling

Whether goods left the factory just before the holiday or arrive in stages afterwards, we can arrange inbound locations and follow-up work according to volume, carton count and outbound timing. Cargo from different origins and in different packing conditions can also be checked and sorted in the same process, reducing the confusion when arrivals bunch up after the holiday.

There Is Still Time to Set the Q4 Rhythm

If you are considering:

• Finding a Hong Kong holding point for goods that have left the factory but have not yet reached the end customer
• Splitting year-end orders into several releases instead of clearing them at once
• Putting air and sea cargo through the same inbound process
• Placing goods in a flexible location during the tariff window
• Reserving adjustable space for different product categories, rather than planning for a single type of goods only

Please feel free to contact us. We would be happy to provide a complimentary consultation and review the most suitable arrangement for the fourth quarter together.

When the international situation makes both schedules and costs hard to predict fully, a local warehouse that can release goods to the rhythm of orders is often more useful than waiting for another round of quotations.